Poll shows Black solidarity behind Obama, popularity of Clintons also increases
WASHINGTON (NNPA) – It’s no secret that Black voters have in recent history overwhelmingly voted Democratic in presidential elections – even as much as 90 percent. But, this year’s election will likely break even that record, revealing a strong African-American solidarity behind the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama and a dramatic drop in support for the Republican ticket, according to a national poll released this week.
A survey conducted to examine socioeconomic and attitudinal differences within the black community found that record turnouts of black voters for black candidates and the lopsided majority of votes these candidates receive demonstrate black solidarity most dramatically.
“Clearly, the historic Obama candidacy is drawing almost unprecedented Black support for the Democratic ticket, some 15 percentage points higher than what Senator John Kerry received in our poll four years ago,” said David Bositis, Senior Research Associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which conducted the study. “If the undecided [voters] break along the same lines as those who expressed a preference, Senator Obama would draw 94 percent of the Black vote and thereby tie President Johnson’s record-high share in the 1964 election.”
The new survey of African-Americans’ political attitudes, authored by Bositis, confirms that support for Obama “among Black voters is at near record levels for a Democratic nominee, while Black identification with the Republican Party has dropped by 60 percent since 2004,” says a statement released Tuesday by the Joint Center, America’s most credible Black political think tank.
Based on the study, Ralph B. Everett, the Joint Center’s president and CEO, predicts a record Black turnout on every level.
“These poll numbers are confirming what we expected-that Senator Obama’s historic candidacy is enormously popular with African-American voters and is, in fact, driving significantly higher percentages of them to identify with the Democratic Party,” said Everett in a statement. “These numbers come on top of record levels of participation by black voters in the Democratic primaries, all of which indicate that Black turnout in the general election will surpass existing records both national and in individual states.”
The poll of 750 African-Americans, taken between Sept. 16 and Oct. 6 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, also revealed mainly one issue of note. That is the economy with 62 percent of African-Americans naming it the most important national problem. In that regard, only a handful of respondent – 8 percent – said their financial situation improved over the past year while 55 percent of African-Americans – 55 percent – said their financial status was worse than it was in the previous year.
The poll also found that despite the contentious Democratic Primary process, both former President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) have increased their favorability ratings among Black voters.
“Senator Clinton is viewed favorably by 86.4 percent [DCS1] of African-Americans, more than six points higher than she fared in the Joint Center’s 2004 poll, with only 7.8 percent viewing her unfavorably,” the report states. “Former President Clinton was viewed favorably by 85.5 percent of respondents, and unfavorably by 9.2 percent. As he prepared to leave office in 2000, a Joint Center poll pegged his favorable rating among African-Americans at 91 percent.
Even after several controversial remarks about Obama that drew ire from the Black community during the Democratic primary, the current rise in Clinton popularity may be due to their glowing endorsements of Obama during the Democratic National Convention in August. Some analysts largely attribute the Democratic Party unity to their Convention speeches.
Other findings in the Joint Center poll:
• 84 percent of African-Americans prefer Sen. Obama over his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain (R-AZ), who was chosen by six percent of respondents, with 10 percent undecided or preferring not to share their preference.
• More than 90 percent of respondents had a favorable view of the Democratic nominee, with 4.7 percent viewing him unfavorably, as opposed to a 22.8 favorable and a 65.1 unfavorable rating for Senator McCain.
• There was a significant change in party identification among African-American voters, with 73 percent identifying themselves as Democrats, up from 63 percent in 2004, and Black Republicans in the survey declining to four percent, down from 10 percent four years ago. The percentage of Black Independents declined from 23 percent to 19 percent over the same four year period.
• President George W. Bush’s favorable ratings among African-Americans are the lowest on record for a sitting president. Only 13.3 percent of African-Americans view Bush favorably, while 80.2 percent view him unfavorably.
The report reminds that “Black voters are an important factor in several swing states, including Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri-as well as in several crucial U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi.”
Concludes Bositis, “The intensity of the African-American vote could be pivotal to the outcome in some state races.
